How is it that the GOP could see a bigger Senate Majority appear out of the 2018 mid-term elections? Of course, it would require a dedicated turnout by the Trump faithful and add to that a little bit of number crunching. Historically the midterm elections are not good for the party of power, whoever that party is. The Democrats are counting on a Blue Wave to take over the House and Senate, while the GOP wants a Red Tide to protect the President from a runaway Congress. There are some ponderables that need to be considered. Here are the IFS and BUTS that will tell the tale.
As Written and Reported By Thomas Mitchell for The Federalist:
Hillary Clinton ruled the big Midwestern cities and suburbs in 2016, often surpassing Barack Obama’s 2012 margins of victory in places like Hamilton County, Ohio (Cincinnati) and Hennepin County, Minnesota (Minneapolis.) But in every Midwestern state, the small towns and countryside gave Donald Trump much higher victory margins than they gave Mitt Romney in 2012.
The small-town and rural Midwest gave Hillary 20 percent fewer votes than Obama received in 2012, and gave Trump 13 percent more votes than they did Romney. The GOP smaller-town victory margin increased an astonishing 130 percent for the nine Midwestern states in aggregate. The “Small–Town and Rural” vote is defined as all voters not in major cities, suburbs, or established “blue collar” industrial counties, not places where media heavies or the donor class live.
In the small-town and rural Midwest, the Republican margin of victory over the Democratic presidential candidate increased to 28.8 percent in 2016 from 12.4 percent in 2012. Trump won seven………
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